The large-scale deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure among residential energy customers has served as a boon for energy systems research relying on granular consumption data. Residential Demand Response aims to utilize the flexibility of consumers to reduce their energy usage during times when the grid is strained. Suitable incentive mechanisms to encourage customers to deviate from their usual behavior have to be implemented to correctly control the bids into the wholesale electricity market as a Demand Response provider. In this paper, we present a framework for short-term load forecasting on an individual user level, and relate non-experimental estimates of Demand Response efficacy (the estimated reduction of consumption during Demand Response events) to the variability of a user’s consumption. We apply our framework on a dataset from a residential Demand Response program in the Western United States. Our results suggest that users with more variable consumption patterns are more likely to reduce their consumption compared to users with a more regular consumption behavior.